June 2025
Market Update

Monthly Market Summary

• The S&P 500 Index returned +6.3%, its strongest 1-month return since November 2023. Large Cap Growth stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 Growth gaining +9.2% and +8.9%, respectively.

• Technology was the top-performing S&P 500 sector for a second consecutive month, with the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors also gaining over +8%. Health Care was the only sector to trade lower, and defensive sectors were relative underperformers as the market traded higher.

• Bonds ended the month with a slight loss, with the U.S. Bond Aggregate posting a -0.6% total return. Corporate bonds outperformed as credit spreads tightened, with investment-grade posting a +0.2% total return and high-yield returning +1.7%.

• International stocks traded higher but underperformed the S&P 500. Developed Markets gained +4.8%, while Emerging Markets returned +4.0%.

Markets Back Near All-Time Highs, But Forward Visibility Remains Low

The defining story of 2025 has been changing trade policy. Markets have weathered two months of policy-driven volatility, only to end up roughly where they started. After a nearly 20% decline from late February to early April, the S&P 500 has rebounded and is within 4% of its all-time high. What remains is weakened business and consumer confidence, rising inflation expectations, and a Federal Reserve that has paused interest rate cuts. The threat of a full-scale trade war and global supply chain disruption has diminished, but the full impact of recent events may take months to become known. Early economic data suggests the tariffs have had a limited impact, but we will continue monitoring what happens to economic and earnings growth in the coming quarters.

To date, the administration has introduced multiple 90-day tariff pauses. The pauses are temporary and staggered: the pause for most countries runs through early July, while the agreement with China extends through mid-August. A recent court ruling adds a layer of uncertainty by challenging the administration’s authority to impose tariffs, although the decision is under appeal. The U.S. economy entered the year with solid momentum, and current market conditions suggest investors are pricing in only a modest impact from tariffs. With policy details still emerging, markets are likely to remain sensitive to new developments, which could mean continued volatility over the coming months.

Looking Ahead: Navigating Uncertainty with a Steady Plan

What is most notable about this period is how quickly sentiment can change. Markets are forward-looking, which means they price in not only current conditions but also future expectations. This helps explain why the market can rally when data is weak and selloff despite strong earnings and economic growth. The stock market’s sharp decline and quick rebound is a reminder of the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective. Periods like this reinforce several important investment principles. Emotional discipline and a well-diversified portfolio are your best defenses against making reactive decisions during market volatility. With the potential for more volatility, it’s important to focus on what you can control—diversification, discipline, and sticking to your long-term plan.

Summary of Market Returns

Current Positioning

There were no changes to our Core Equity model in May. We continued to position a portion of the equity allocation defensively, maintaining some cash to help manage risk. Our international equity exposure remained in place, continuing to demonstrate relative strength throughout the month. We remain vigilant in monitoring market developments and are prepared to adjust positioning as conditions evolve.

On the fixed income side, we reentered positions in both high-yield and floating rate funds. At this time, our bond strategy is fully invested. We continue to favor mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, as well as floating rate bonds.

As always, if you have questions about your risk level, please reach out and schedule a meeting so we can discuss this further. We appreciate the trust and confidence you’ve placed in Copperwynd Financial!

Upcoming Events:

June 13, 2025: As we’ve previously shared, we are nearing the completion of our strategic partnership with Lido Advisors. We’re excited to begin accessing Lido’s broader resources, investment strategies, and specialized wealth services — all aimed at delivering greater value to you. This will be the final newsletter sent under the Copperwynd name! As of June 13th, our transition to Lido Advisors will be official. After that date, our website will redirect to the Lido Advisors site, and you can expect a new look and feel to future market updates and communications. While some things may look a little different, our commitment to you remains the same. We’re excited for what’s ahead and grateful to have you with us on this next chapter!

If you have any questions, feel free to call us at 480-348-2100 or reach out to us directly on our cell phones.

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The S&P 500 Index or the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. The S&P 500 is a float-weighted index, meaning company market capitalizations are adjusted by the number of shares available for public trading. Note: Investors cannot invest directly in an index. These unmanaged indices do not reflect management fees and transaction costs that are associated with most investments.